Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts
Friday, October 11, 2013
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
Friday, September 7, 2012
Draghi pins hopes of saving euro on plan to buy struggling countries' bonds | Business | The Guardian
Draghi pins hopes of saving euro on plan to buy struggling countries' bonds | Business | The Guardian
Could this be one of the last kicks of the can? the 'big bazooka' that finally brings some calm and order? Even if not, it certainly does seem to be momentous, not least because if overrode German opposition, Also, and this I find patricularly noteworthy, the bond buying would be 'sterilized' - which means any money used to buy bonds, will be taken from somewhere else, which in effect would be a transfer of money from the wealthier areas, to the poorer, or at least, to those who are going bust (which is slighlty less fair!). Given how such sharing of wealth is a crucial part of any cohesive 'nation' (i.e. a society bound together enough to consider sharing amongst itself), could this be another tiny step on the road to European integration? Hearts may yet be away behind, but maybe they will inevitably also, follow the money?
BUT - while from grand EU strategy this might seem logical, a very nasty devil could lurk in the detail. While I'm glad to see the ECB doing something major, I am still firm in the belief that one can't cut one's way out of recession. Perhaps inflation is the only way to get rid of the debt effectively, without creating more, and this would mean the 'sterilization' is exactly what's not wanted, since it is this which is supposed to prevent inflation. The problem of course is that for every inflation might destroy debt, but it destroys savings too, so maybe even more than sterilization this road would require a society prepared to take the hit for its (possibly wasteful) brother. Looked at it that way, things don't look quite so bright
other comment pieces :
Impression left by announcement on unlimited bond buying is that it is technically sound ? but based on flawed economics : Mario Draghi rescue plan with more misery at its core will not save euro
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/sep/06/mario-draghi-rescue-plan-euro
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/sep/06/ecb-bond-buying-what-the-economists-say
Could this be one of the last kicks of the can? the 'big bazooka' that finally brings some calm and order? Even if not, it certainly does seem to be momentous, not least because if overrode German opposition, Also, and this I find patricularly noteworthy, the bond buying would be 'sterilized' - which means any money used to buy bonds, will be taken from somewhere else, which in effect would be a transfer of money from the wealthier areas, to the poorer, or at least, to those who are going bust (which is slighlty less fair!). Given how such sharing of wealth is a crucial part of any cohesive 'nation' (i.e. a society bound together enough to consider sharing amongst itself), could this be another tiny step on the road to European integration? Hearts may yet be away behind, but maybe they will inevitably also, follow the money?
BUT - while from grand EU strategy this might seem logical, a very nasty devil could lurk in the detail. While I'm glad to see the ECB doing something major, I am still firm in the belief that one can't cut one's way out of recession. Perhaps inflation is the only way to get rid of the debt effectively, without creating more, and this would mean the 'sterilization' is exactly what's not wanted, since it is this which is supposed to prevent inflation. The problem of course is that for every inflation might destroy debt, but it destroys savings too, so maybe even more than sterilization this road would require a society prepared to take the hit for its (possibly wasteful) brother. Looked at it that way, things don't look quite so bright
other comment pieces :
Impression left by announcement on unlimited bond buying is that it is technically sound ? but based on flawed economics : Mario Draghi rescue plan with more misery at its core will not save euro
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/sep/06/mario-draghi-rescue-plan-euro
- The "rescue" plan involves governments in Rome and Italy driving
their economies deeper into depression to reduce the interest rates they
pay on their borrowing. The ECB seems to think that the reason
investors are giving Italy and Spain the cold shoulder is that they are
not cutting hard enough, fast enough. Steeped in economic orthodoxy,
Draghi makes George Osborne look like a paid-up member of the Maynard
Keynes appreciation society.
The reason investors demand high interest rates when they lend to Italy and Spain is their concern about the impact of permanent recession on public finances and banks. A rescue plan that has at its core more demand-destroying measures will do more harm than good.
To sum up, Draghi has bought Europe a bit more time. The can has been kicked a few metres down the road. He has done so by incurring the wrath of the Bundesbank and will know that if this fails, there is little more the ECB can do.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/sep/06/ecb-bond-buying-what-the-economists-say
- As expected, the ECB will buy short-term bonds
provided that there is accompanying pressure on politicians to maintain
structural changes. I believe it is essential that such conditions are
applied, not just for discipline but also because the actions taken by
the ECB are not without cost.
Opposition to the ECB action is usually made on the ground of monetary financing or inflation. In fact, one of the costs is not so much inflation of consumer prices but long-term lowering of returns to most pensioners and savers, as well as increasing the cost of pension contributions for the working age population.
This can, in turn, also negatively affect business competitiveness. These sectors of society are of course already affected as a result of the cycle of stimulus, lowering of interest rates, and quantitative-easing-type measures that have been taken in the US and Europe.
Friday, July 20, 2012
Europe's democracy dilemma – how and when to step in?
As eastern European countries become more autocratic, Brussels must build a legal and political toolkit for intervention
Europe's democracy dilemma – how and when to step in? | Jan-Werner Mueller | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk
Wednesday, July 4, 2012
Tuesday, June 5, 2012
Monday, June 4, 2012
Sunday, June 3, 2012
The dark side of Poland and Ukraine
Euro 2012: antisemitic echoes that threaten celebration of football | World news | The Observer
What is most bizarre is the antisemitism in Poland, despite there being virtually no Jews (for the obvious reason), but still horrific.
" Perhaps that's to be expected given the catastrophic destruction visited on the two countries, but it has led many to a world-view that is a perversion of the golden rule: do unto others as others have done unto you.
It is most visible in the culture surrounding football. Racism, xenophobia, Jew hatred, all manifest themselves at the footie. Why this hatred should be so strong has social historians grasping for answers.
Jan Olaszek, of Poland's Institute of National Remembrance, says: "People don't know history. They know stereotypes." This is what lies behind one of the strangest phenomena of contemporary Polish life, what Olaszek calls "antisemitism without Jews".
Poland was the centre of the Holocaust. There are virtually no Jews left in the country, yet antisemitism persists. This is what Olaszek means by stereotypes. "Some Poles think all Jews were communists."
What is most bizarre is the antisemitism in Poland, despite there being virtually no Jews (for the obvious reason), but still horrific.
" Perhaps that's to be expected given the catastrophic destruction visited on the two countries, but it has led many to a world-view that is a perversion of the golden rule: do unto others as others have done unto you.
It is most visible in the culture surrounding football. Racism, xenophobia, Jew hatred, all manifest themselves at the footie. Why this hatred should be so strong has social historians grasping for answers.
Jan Olaszek, of Poland's Institute of National Remembrance, says: "People don't know history. They know stereotypes." This is what lies behind one of the strangest phenomena of contemporary Polish life, what Olaszek calls "antisemitism without Jews".
Poland was the centre of the Holocaust. There are virtually no Jews left in the country, yet antisemitism persists. This is what Olaszek means by stereotypes. "Some Poles think all Jews were communists."
Saturday, May 26, 2012
Lucre or liberty? Ireland's choice...
Ireland faces a choice between lucre and liberty | Mary Kenny http://gu.com/p/37pka
Saturday, May 5, 2012
Populism in Europe
European elections: the false promises of populism | Jan-Werner Mueller | Comment is free | The Guardian
Abstract:
"
- Here's the key characteristic of populism: populists contrast an image of a pure, homogeneous people with that of a corrupt or at least, uncaring elite that colludes with those who are not properly part of the national body politic. That can mean both those at the very top of the social ladder and those at the very bottom: in the populist imagination, elites work hand in hand with "global finance capitalism" but also pay too much attention (and money) to the poor who do not really belong to us and yet somehow live off us.
- They do not think they are the 99%. They think they're the 100%.
- So how to relate to populists? Pandering never works in the long run: Sarkozy took votes from the Front National in 2007, but also legitimated the LePeniste perspective. And that perspective is ultimately always more credibly embodied by a Le Pen. But neither will it do for elites to dismiss populists with a Thatcherite (and now Merkelite) claim that "there is no alternative" to what they are doing. In fact, technocracy curiously mirrors populism: only one possible policy here, only one possible voice of the people there; nothing really to talk about.
- In fact, technocracy and populism reinforce each other: liberal elites become ever more distrustful of democracy; illiberal people seek to defy them. Instead, politicians need to acknowledge that there are alternatives, justify the one they have chosen as best they can and argue that ultimately politics is about issues and institutions – not about pure identity, as populists insist."
Monday, April 23, 2012
Marine Le Pen's success reveals populists' appeal to European voters
The Front National is the big winner in the French elections as 'far right' parties capitalise on immigration and eurozone fears
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/23/marine-le-pen-populist-appeal
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/23/marine-le-pen-populist-appeal
- what the assorted leaders and parties have in common is a deep rightwing cultural conservatism suffused with nostalgia for an always better and often imaginary national past – the era before mass immigration, globalisation, Europe, and international finance destroyed, they believe, the old, white, illiberal, homogeneous nation states of Europe.On economics, however, the populists tend to be anything but rightwing. They are further to the left of European social democracy in supporting generous welfare states, early retirement ages, pensions – a strong state munificent in its public spending.
- Islamophobia has become the new antisemitism for the current generation of rebels, while the age of austerity decided by Europe's leaders as the answer to runaway debt, soaring deficits, and a failing euro supplies fertile ground for the populist campaigners.
- Although they do not achieve their maximalist demands, these campaigns are successful in setting the agendas in national politics and forcing the mainstream parties to accommodate the extremists by meeting them halfway.
Friday, April 20, 2012
Greece burns, but not its German arms contracts
Definitely it does sound hypocritical for the Germans to be demanding
such social austerity in Greece, while at the same time maintaining
massive arms contracts. While of course Greece was profligate and would
need help anyway, it needs to be highlighted when countries like German
and France are imposing tough conditions, to lend money which will be
used to pay bills owed to them! Furthermore it is a valid question as to
whether inner core countries have been able to reduce military spending
partially due to relying on (poorer) peripheral countries who have to
maintain the border. Of course there is some sharing of resources in the
EU, but psychologically there is more drive if one is on the perimeter.
And of course military spending is often accompanied by corruption, so
will always appeal to the government/elite who can profit from it, and
in border countries the psychology may again enable them to convince the
public to pay for it (and worth noting even some German companies have
been fined/settled out of court with regards to corrupt deals with
Greece).
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/19/greece-military-spending-debt-crisis?INTCMP=SRCH
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/19/greece-military-spending-debt-crisis?INTCMP=SRCH
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Ah, it could be worse - we could be Greece - The Irish Times
Ah, it could be worse - we could be Greece - The Irish Times - Tue, Apr 17, 2012
Fintan O'Toole recognizes the 'could be worse' current mentality to something identified 50 years ago by a German writing about Ireland :"
?When something happens to you in Germany,? Böll noted, ?when you miss a train, break a leg, go bankrupt, we say: It couldn?t have been any worse; whatever happens is always the worst. With the Irish it is almost the opposite: if you break a leg, miss a train, go bankrupt, they say: It could be worse; instead of a leg you might have broken your neck . .
Böll was not engaging in colourful Paddywhackery. He realised that a culture in which people routinely answer the question ?How?s things?? with ?Ah sure, they could be worse? is one that has learned to defend itself against real and persistent pain: ??It could be worse? is one of the most common turns of speech, possibly because only too often things are pretty bad and what?s worse offers the consolation of being relative.?
Even more incisively, he suggested that this habit of mind is not mere passivity. On the contrary, it takes great creativity to sustain it: ?With us [Germans] when something happens our sense of humour and imagination desert us; in Ireland, that is just when they come into play. To persuade someone who has broken his leg, is lying in pain or hobbling around in a plaster cast, that it might have been worse is not only comforting, it is an occupation requiring poetic talents.?
Fintan O'Toole recognizes the 'could be worse' current mentality to something identified 50 years ago by a German writing about Ireland :"
?When something happens to you in Germany,? Böll noted, ?when you miss a train, break a leg, go bankrupt, we say: It couldn?t have been any worse; whatever happens is always the worst. With the Irish it is almost the opposite: if you break a leg, miss a train, go bankrupt, they say: It could be worse; instead of a leg you might have broken your neck . .
Böll was not engaging in colourful Paddywhackery. He realised that a culture in which people routinely answer the question ?How?s things?? with ?Ah sure, they could be worse? is one that has learned to defend itself against real and persistent pain: ??It could be worse? is one of the most common turns of speech, possibly because only too often things are pretty bad and what?s worse offers the consolation of being relative.?
Even more incisively, he suggested that this habit of mind is not mere passivity. On the contrary, it takes great creativity to sustain it: ?With us [Germans] when something happens our sense of humour and imagination desert us; in Ireland, that is just when they come into play. To persuade someone who has broken his leg, is lying in pain or hobbling around in a plaster cast, that it might have been worse is not only comforting, it is an occupation requiring poetic talents.?
Friday, April 13, 2012
The European Citizen's Initiative
"The European Citizens' Initiative (ECI), - Hailed as the first transnational instrument of participatory democracy in world history,
it allows members of the public to call for new European laws on issues
of their choice, provided they have a million supporting signatures
from at least seven member states. But despite its stated aim of bringing the EU closer to its citizens"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/apr/09/eu-citizens-initiative
BUT - while there is obviously a risk that a body such as the EU ends up being ruled by a kind of 'elite' of bureaucrats, I am also slightly sceptical about referendum/petition based politics. On the one hand they do provide help raise ignored issues, and give a voice to a perhaps too often paternalistically ignored public, but on the other they are very prone to populism, and the 'tyranny of the majority'. The problem is, apart from those affecting disenfranchised minorities (which by definition cannot result in such tyranny), often the topics which get people most exercised about, are those which are aimed at the behaviour of others (moral issues, social friction issues), and this is what is most dangerous about populism. And of course there is the risk of manipulation by well funded special interests. So overall while the EU needs more public involvement, I am wary of such initiatives unless properly balanced and controlled.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/apr/09/eu-citizens-initiative
BUT - while there is obviously a risk that a body such as the EU ends up being ruled by a kind of 'elite' of bureaucrats, I am also slightly sceptical about referendum/petition based politics. On the one hand they do provide help raise ignored issues, and give a voice to a perhaps too often paternalistically ignored public, but on the other they are very prone to populism, and the 'tyranny of the majority'. The problem is, apart from those affecting disenfranchised minorities (which by definition cannot result in such tyranny), often the topics which get people most exercised about, are those which are aimed at the behaviour of others (moral issues, social friction issues), and this is what is most dangerous about populism. And of course there is the risk of manipulation by well funded special interests. So overall while the EU needs more public involvement, I am wary of such initiatives unless properly balanced and controlled.
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Really the final act in the Greek tragedy?
Greece really seems to be caught between a rock and a hard place, and while of course as a country largely responsible for its own mess, are the individual voters really to be punished with years of misery for the incompetence of their government, or even of their society? Is it the economic equivalent of punitive repatriations after an aggressive and foolhardy war? On the one hand the Greeks played along with the game, the bloated state and the evasion of taxes, but on the other this was just one more example of the weaknesses in the global economic system we are all signed up to, since even if Greece borrowed recklessly, there were plenty ready to lend to them.
Personally I think the only long term option for Greece is total but rapid collapse via default and exit from the euro, and then perhaps at least some possibility to rebuild from the ground up a newer more stable society. Any other course, like the punitive loans and extreme "austerity" measures, will I think just drag out that collapse, and worse, make it unfairly distributed, so that those with the most resources, scrabble back to the top of the rubble that buries their compatriots.
I fear for a social explosion: Greeks can't take any more punishment | World news | The Observer
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)