Nate silver, it's the numbers stupid

Nate Silver: it's the numbers, stupid | World news | The Observer

In this context [US election], Silver's skills seem not just relevant but vital. The liberal media don't care, perhaps, when it's their side winning; they may next time around. Because this is military-grade spin, targeted like a drone strike at the level of the individual. The political class has responded by waving the equivalent of a crucifix at it.

Mark Henderson, the British author of The Geek Manifesto, observed on his blog that Silver's recent prominence just goes to highlight the anti-scientific bias at the heart of so much of our media, how, for example, "in the past two years, Melanie Phillips has been on Question Time more than all scientists put together".

Silver's background and methodology mark him out from the rest of what in the US is sometimes called the "gang of 500", the familiar faces with familiar views who are wheeled out on Question Time-like political programmes.

It's a small, self-referencing cohort that the echo-chamber of Twitter has only amplified and distorted, leading to what Silver believes is the worst kind of "group think". He gives as an example the presidential debates "where the conventional wisdom solidifies very quickly. I was 15 minutes late for the first one, and by the time I got home, it had already been decided".