Perspective in the Iranian question

When one remembers that Saddam Hussein didn't allow UN inspections not because he had weapons of mass destruction but because he didn't want his people and neighbours to know he didn't, then it is all the more important when considering the effect of sanctions on Iran to take internal perspectives into account.

As Tisdall says: "
And this is the point that should worry the west's sanctioneers, fixated by Iran's nuclear programme to the exclusion of other considerations. At the moment the regime's deep internal contradictions could be leading towards a revolutionary climax, the US and its allies are giving Khamenei a possible way out by allowing him to externalise the problem and claim that the Iranian nation is under attack from hostile foreign forces, rather than definitively changing from within.

This is the overlooked domestic backdrop to the strait of Hormuz shenanigans and other provocations, such as the alleged plot against the Saudi ambassador in Washington. Iran, for all its aggressive rhetoric over the past few years, has studiously avoided military confrontation. In fact, it has studiously eschewed an open conflict that it would probably lose, relying instead on time-consuming diplomacy and occasional publicity stunts. But with the regime's back to the wall at home, that may be changing."

Iran could be bluffing in the strait of Hormuz – but can US risk calling it? | Simon Tisdall | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk